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NFL Playoffs 2026

Chiefs Playoff Scenarios: Path to Four-Peat

Updated January 28, 2026 | AFC West Standings & Tiebreakers

The Kansas City Chiefs are chasing NFL history—a fourth consecutive Super Bowl championship. Here's everything you need to know about their 2026 playoff path and what scenarios put them in the best position.

Current Playoff Picture

12-3
Current Record
#1
AFC Seed

Clinching Scenarios

AFC West Title

The Chiefs can clinch the AFC West with:

  • Chiefs WIN in any remaining game, OR
  • Chargers LOSS in any remaining game, OR
  • Raiders LOSS + Broncos LOSS in same week

#1 Seed (Bye Week)

For the crucial first-round bye:

  • Chiefs WIN OUT (2 games remaining), OR
  • Chiefs go 1-1 + Bills lose 1 game, OR
  • Chiefs go 1-1 + Ravens lose 1 game + win tiebreaker

AFC Standings

SeedTeamRecordDivision
1Kansas City Chiefs12-3AFC West
2Buffalo Bills12-3AFC East
3Baltimore Ravens11-4AFC North
4Houston Texans10-5AFC South
5Los Angeles Chargers10-5AFC West
6Pittsburgh Steelers9-6AFC North
7Denver Broncos9-6AFC West

Key Tiebreakers

If the Chiefs and Bills finish with the same record, here's how it breaks:

  • Head-to-head: Split 1-1 (no advantage)
  • Conference record: Chiefs 9-2, Bills 8-3 (Chiefs advantage)
  • Common games: Chiefs have edge in wins vs common opponents
  • Strength of victory: Currently tied
⚠️ Bottom Line: The Chiefs control their own destiny. WIN and they're the #1 seed with home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.

Remaining Schedule

  • Week 17: vs Pittsburgh Steelers (Home)
  • Week 18: @ Denver Broncos

Historical Context

No team has ever won four consecutive Super Bowls. The Chiefs are attempting to surpass the 1970s Steelers and the early 2000s Patriots—both of whom won at most two in a row during their dynasties.

A #1 seed dramatically increases the odds: Super Bowl winners have come from the #1 seed 35% of the time since the expanded playoff format.