Josh Allen Fantasy Football 2026: Projections & Rankings

Josh Allen is the QB1 overall in fantasy football for 2026. His rushing floor (700+ yards, 6+ TDs on the ground) separates him from every other quarterback. In a format where points above replacement matter most, Allen's dual-threat ability creates a weekly advantage that pure pocket passers cannot match. Draft him in the first round of superflex leagues without hesitation.

2025 Season Recap

Allen finished as the QB1 in total fantasy points for the third time in four seasons. His final stat line:

• Passing: 4,286 yards, 35 TDs, 12 INTs
• Rushing: 762 yards, 7 TDs (6.8 YPC)
• Fantasy points (PPR): 438.4 (27.4 per game)

The rushing production alone would rank him among the top 20 running backs in fantasy. Combined with elite passing volume, Allen operates in a tier of his own.

Why the Rushing Matters

In fantasy football, positional scarcity determines value. There are 32 starting quarterbacks. Only a handful offer rushing upside. Allen's rushing floor fundamentally changes his projection model.

That 5-point weekly advantage compounds over a season. It creates margin for error during bad passing games. It delivers a floor that pure passers cannot match.

2026 ADP and Draft Strategy

Allen's current ADP (Average Draft Position) in superflex leagues is 1.02, typically going immediately after the first running back off the board. In 1QB leagues, he falls to rounds 4-5, which represents significant value.

Superflex Leagues

Take Allen with any pick from 1.01 to 1.04. The positional advantage he provides at QB1 outweighs the cost of missing a top running back. His floor is higher, and his ceiling matches anyone.

1QB Leagues

Wait for Allen in rounds 4-5. Do not reach in round 3 when elite wide receivers and running backs are still available. The difference between Allen and the QB5 is smaller in 1QB formats.

Weekly Projection Model

Allen's baseline weekly projection for 2026:

• Passing yards: 265-280
• Passing TDs: 2.0-2.2
• Interceptions: 0.7
• Rushing yards: 45-50
• Rushing TDs: 0.4
• Total fantasy points (PPR): 24-27

The variance in Allen's game comes from touchdowns, not volume. His floor is 18 points in terrible matchups. His ceiling pushes 40 in shootouts.

Strengths

• Rushing volume: 8-10 designed runs per game, plus scrambles
• Red zone usage: Bills trust him on QB sneaks and goal-line carries
• Offensive weapons: Stefon Diggs, Dalton Kincaid, plus run game support
• Volume stability: Bills offense runs through Allen in every scenario

Risks

• Injury exposure: Running quarterbacks take more hits. Allen has been durable but risk exists.
• Interceptions: Allen averages 12-14 INTs per season. The turnovers hurt in points-per-interception formats.
• Weather: December in Buffalo means wind, snow, and suppressed passing offense.

Dynasty Value

Allen is 29 years old entering 2026. Elite quarterbacks play into their late 30s. He has at least five more elite seasons ahead, possibly eight.

Dynasty ranking: QB1 overall. Worth multiple first-round picks in dynasty startup drafts. Do not trade him for anything less than a king's ransom.

Playoff Schedule Analysis

Fantasy championships are won in Weeks 15-17. Allen's 2026 playoff schedule:

• Week 15: vs. New England (favorable matchup)
• Week 16: @ Miami (dome game, high-scoring potential)
• Week 17: vs. New York Jets (division rivalry, high stakes)

The playoff schedule is favorable. Miami and New England rank in the bottom half of defenses against quarterbacks. The Jets game will be high-volume regardless of matchup.