Patrick Mahomes Fantasy Football 2026: Projections & Rankings

Patrick Mahomes ranks as the QB2 overall in fantasy football for 2026, behind only Josh Allen. His arm talent is unmatched. His playoff history is legendary. But his rushing production (300-400 yards annually) creates a lower floor than the dual-threat alternatives. In superflex leagues, he remains a first-round lock. In 1QB formats, wait until rounds 5-6.

2025 Season Recap

Mahomes finished as the QB2 overall, narrowly trailing Allen in total fantasy points:

• Passing: 4,532 yards, 38 TDs, 11 INTs
• Rushing: 389 yards, 3 TDs
• Fantasy points (PPR): 412.8 (25.8 per game)

The passing efficiency remained elite. Mahomes led the league in passing touchdowns and finished second in yards. But the gap between him and Allen comes down to rushing—and that gap is structural.

The Arm Talent Advantage

Mahomes makes throws that other quarterbacks cannot attempt. The sidearm slings, the no-look passes, the improvised plays that turn broken downs into touchdowns. This creates weekly ceiling that matches anyone.

In games where the Chiefs fall behind and need to throw, Mahomes becomes a fantasy cheat code. He has produced 400+ yard games and 5+ touchdown performances regularly throughout his career.

Supporting Cast Analysis

The Chiefs have rebuilt around Mahomes repeatedly, and the production continues. Current weapons include:

• Travis Kelce: Still elite at age 36, commanding 100+ targets
• Receiving corps: Young and developing, with breakout potential
• Running game: Improved, taking pressure off passing attack

The system is Mahomes-proof. Andy Reid's offense maximizes whatever pieces surround the quarterback.

2026 ADP and Draft Strategy

Mahomes' current ADP in superflex leagues is 1.04-1.06, slightly behind Allen but ahead of other quarterbacks. In 1QB leagues, he falls to rounds 5-6.

Superflex Strategy

If Allen is gone, take Mahomes with confidence. The difference between QB1 and QB2 is smaller than the difference between QB2 and QB5. Lock in the elite tier.

1QB Strategy

Wait for Mahomes in rounds 5-6. He offers elite ceiling but a floor that can disappoint in blow-out wins where the Chiefs run out the clock. The cost difference between Mahomes and mid-tier quarterbacks does not justify early investment.

Weekly Projection Model

Mahomes' baseline weekly projection for 2026:

• Passing yards: 280-295
• Passing TDs: 2.2-2.4
• Interceptions: 0.6
• Rushing yards: 22-28
• Rushing TDs: 0.2
• Total fantasy points (PPR): 22-26

The floor is slightly lower than Allen due to reduced rushing. The ceiling is comparable when the Chiefs need to throw.

Strengths

• Arm talent: Best in the NFL, creates weekly ceiling
• Coaching: Andy Reid optimizes every situation
• Kelce connection: Most reliable safety valve in football
• Playoff pedigree: Chiefs always contend, meaning meaningful games

Risks

• Game script: Chiefs win big, run the clock, limit passing volume
• Rushing decline: Mahomes runs less as career progresses
• Weapons transition: Core aging out, young players untested

Dynasty Value

Mahomes is 30 years old entering 2026. He has a 10-year contract with Kansas City. He will remain elite for the duration of most dynasty leagues.

Dynasty ranking: QB2 behind Allen. Worth multiple first-round picks but slightly less than Allen due to rushing gap.